2 Population
2.1 Population of the County

Since the adoption of the last County Development Plan the 1996 Census of Population has become available. County Kilkenny’s population has shown a modest net increase of 1,701 over the period 1991 to 1996. The results show that County Kilkenny’s population structure is still very rural whereby the County continues to have a weak urban structure with Kilkenny City being the dominant urban centre. The towns next in size within the County are very much smaller than Kilkenny City. With the exception of Thomastown, these towns have been quite static in population.

Table 2.0 below shows the changes in population of Kilkenny City and the four scheduled towns.


Table 2.1

Town 1991 1996 % change
Kilkenny City & Env. 17,669 18,696 +5.8%
Thomastown 1,487 1,581 +6.3%
Castlecomer 1,396 1,380 - 1.1%
Callan 1,246 1,224 -1.7%
Graiguenamanagh 1,112 1,113 <+0.1%

As a country, Ireland is moving more into line with European patterns of population, in that the birth rate is falling and there is increasing urbanisation. This trend is also reflected at county level.

60% of the county’s total population increase (1991 – 1996) occurred in Kilkenny City and its environs.

Rural areas closer to towns saw substantial population increases. For example the rural area adjoining Kilkenny City (Kilkenny rural DED) increased from 10,841 in 1991 to 11,638 in 1996. Rathpatrick DED, which is adjacent to Waterford City, increased from 1,063 (1991) to 1,662(1996).

2.2 The Council's previous estimates

Table 2.1 shows the previous forecasts compared to actual populations for the entire County.

Table 2.2
Year Actual population Predicted population
1971 61,473 -
1978 No census 66,800
1979 69,156 -
1981 70,806 -
1983 No census 70,300
1986 73,186 74,560
1991 73,635 79,960
1996 75,363 73,786

As can be seen from the above table the population projection is an exercise in estimation and can be seriously inaccurate. The volatility of Irish migration patterns makes estimates in Ireland particularly difficult. Economic conditions can have a greater impact than birth and death rates.

2.3 Projected population levels & Prediction of future population

CAAS Consultants have carried out an estimation of future population in the County.

The assumptions made for the prediction of the population of the County were that the birth rate would continue to decline, mortality will fall and there will be an increase in migration.

Table 2.3

Population age group 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
Pre school age 5,211 4,065 4,605 4,460 4,264
School age 19,436 17,844 16,427 15,334 14,498
Working age 42,817 46,565 48967 49,459 48756
Retirement age 9,633 10,827 12,604 14,736 17,012
Total Population 77,097 80,202 82,612 83.989 84,530
Work Force 34,372 36,907 38,586 39,805 38,726
Households 23,464 26,052 28,829 31,193 33,026

* CAAS Study - Population Projections for County Kilkenny 1999-2019
The estimates predict an increasing population within the County with a significant increase in elderly people with the number at working age and the size of the work force increasing. By 2004 the population of the County is forecast to increase to 80,202. Over a twenty-year period the County’s population is forecast to increase to 84,530 by the year 2019. *

*Source CAAS study. Population Projections for County Kilkenny 1999- 2019

2.4 Household formation

Based on the current trends there is a significant increase in households predicted. Between 1991 and 1996 the number of private households rose from 20,593 to 22,257 an increase of 1,664** at a time when the population rose by 1,701 persons. The projected figures show a continuation of this trend for Kilkenny. It is estimated that there will be a significant increase in the number of households. This is due to a trend of increased household formation relative to population. The number of family units increases due to a greater number of single parent families and single and two person households.

**C.S.O. Census of Population 1996

2.5 Age Structure

In the 1994 Development Plan it was predicted that there would be significant declines in population of school age, while the workforce would continue to grow throughout the Plan period. Analysis of the most recent CSO figures available show that these predictions are coming through with a reduction in school going population and an increase in the working population as a percentage of the total population over the period 1986 to 1996.

Table 2.5
Percentage in each age group Kilkenny City & County

Age Group 1986 1991 1996 Actual Change 86-96
0-9 19.7% 17.7% 15.3% -2871
10-19 19.1% 19.5% 18.8% +219
20-34 21.2% 19.9% 19.7% -653
35-44 12.1% 13.4% 14.2% +3007
45-64 16.8% 17.6% 19.7% +2500
65+ 11.1% 12.0% 12.3% +1090
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%  

2.6 Review

During the period of the Development Plan a review of the population projections carried out in 1999 was completed and a revised projection for the purposes of the Housing strategy (Part V of the Planning and Development Act 2000) was completed in 2001.

This review was not based on cohort survival techniques but was an estimate of house completions for the period 2001 to 2007 having regard to the projections already carried out the National Spatial Strategy, the population predictions for the South East Region and the level of house completions to the year 2000.

This gave the following projections:

Table 2.6
Population and Household Estimates and Forecasts for Kilkenny City & County

  1996 2001 2007
Population 75,336 80,919 85,585
Households 23,109 26,444 30,446
Ave. Household size 3.26 3.06 2.82
% change on previous period1 2.3 7.4 6.1
annual ave. growth rate1 0.46 1.44 0.99
1. 1996 is compared to the data for 1991      

 

These figures are in line with those in the strategy that simulates a distribution of employment growth away from Dublin and to other parts of the country over a similar period.

2.7 Summary

The projections carried out indicate
• An increasing population
• An ageing population
• An increasing workforce
• An increasing rate of household formation

A new census of population has been undertaken in the year 2002. It is an objective of the Council to monitor and analyse the results from the new census as they become available during the period of the new plan in order to assess the accuracy of the projections made and to identify problems and opportunities which might arise as a result.